June 16th, 2024 | 3:24

Bizkaia

EH Bildu in the lead in the Basque elections

Pello Otxandiano, EH Bildu's new bet for the 2024 Basque elections

Jesus Carames

April 14, 2024 | 7:50 a.m.

EH Bildu has achieved a historic victory in the elections to the Basque Parliament, according to EITB Focus projections, becoming the most voted force for the first time. This change in the Basque political landscape could significantly alter the balance of power in the region. With 34.9% of the votes, EH Bildu would obtain between 28 and 29 seats, a notable increase compared to its previous performance, where it grew 7 points and won between 7 and 8 seats.

The PNV, which has traditionally been dominant, remains firm in terms of vote percentage with 34.2%, although it would experience a slight reduction in seats, standing at 26-27. This result reflects stability in its electoral base, despite losing between 2 and 3 seats compared to the last election.

The PSE-EE manages to remain stable with 14% of the votes and could increase its representation in parliament, reaching between 10 and 12 seats, which suggests a slight gain of up to two seats compared to the previous election. On the other hand, the PP also shows growth, obtaining 7.7% of the votes and increasing its parliamentary presence in one seat, at the expense of Vox, which would be left out of parliament.

The confederal left represented by Sumar will be able to enter parliament with up to two seats, while Elkarrekin Podemos would not achieve representation. This result indicates a realignment in the left-wing political spectrum in the Basque Country, with Sumar taking the baton of representation.

Geographically, EH Bildu would lead in Álava and Gipuzkoa, while the PNV would maintain its strength in Bizkaia. This territorial pattern highlights the regional political division and is crucial to understanding the differentiated support that each party receives.

The possible formation of a government is uncertain. Although the PNV and the PSE-EE could try to reissue their coalition, it is possible that they will not reach an absolute majority, with a projection of between 36 and 39 seats. Alternatively, a pact between EH Bildu and the PSE-EE could add between 38 and 41 seats, while a grand coalition between EH Bildu and PNV would add between 54 and 56 seats, clearly exceeding the threshold for an absolute majority.

This electoral panorama, marked by the possibility of pacts and coalitions, reflects a diversity of political options and strategies that could determine the future direction of the Basque government. One week before the elections, the campaign has not managed to increase participation, which is estimated to not exceed 61%, and 20% of voters are still undecided, which could significantly influence the final results.

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