June 16th, 2024 | 3:18


Extrapolating data from the forales to the Basque Parliament: Urkullu saves the match ball

Jesus Carames

May 31, 2023 | 7:57 a.m.

A Scenario in Transformation

The last regional elections in the Basque Country, despite being a broader and more representative sample than any survey, have left a picture full of nuances. The coalition government with the PSE-EE would manage to maintain an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament with 39 of the 75 seats, although with a slight decrease compared to the current 41.

The emerging force is EH Bildu, which is tied in seats with the PNV despite not having a candidate after Maddalen Iriarte moved to Gipuzkoa. Even so, EH Bildu would demonstrate greater strength by also obtaining representation in Navarra, a territory in which the PNV has not appeared in years.

Changes in the Distribution of Seats

In the territorial division, it is observed that the PNV continues to be the first force with 26 seats, although far from the 31 obtained in 2020. EH Bildu would rise from 21 to 24 seats, being very close to leading. However, the socialists are also gaining ground, going from 10 to 13 seats, compensating for the fall of the majority partner of the current bipartisan.

The PP, now without Ciudadanos, would reach 7 seats, while Elkarrekin Podemos-IU would decrease from 6 to 5. VOX, despite having managed to enter the General Meetings of Álava, would not have enough strength to maintain the seat it obtained in this constituency in 2020.

The General Elections, a New Challenge

The call for Pedro Sánchez for the general elections on July 23 has overshadowed the debate on the recent municipal and regional elections. Despite the fact that the keys to vote and mobilization vary in each call, the current data would leave the PNV with 7 seats and EH Bildu with the same number, always within the framework of the autonomous community.

For EH Bildu, this would mean a considerable increase of 3 seats, absorbing the strength that Elkarrekin Podemos-IU had in 2019. The hypothetical confluence around Sumar would not achieve representation, while the PP would maintain a single deputy, although this time for Álava and not for Bizkaia.

Next Political Moves

In this new political scenario, the resistance of the PNV and the PSE-EE to the downward trend of socialism at the national level is notable. Although the situation is volatile, with emerging forces such as EH Bildu challenging the status quo, the prospects for the next general elections paint a horizon of change and reconfiguration. Their eyes are on Euskadi, where the fate of its 18 seats will set the course for the future of Spanish politics.

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