July 21, 2024 | 12:55


First blow of the extreme right in the Netherlands

Jesus Carames

June 7, 2024 | 8:58 a.m.

The rise of Geert Wilders and the reconfiguration of the political landscape

The left-wing alliance composed of Greens and Social Democrats, known as GL-PvdA and led by Frans Timmermans, would have obtained 8 of the 31 seats that correspond to the Netherlands in the European Parliament, according to exit polls. Surprisingly, the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV), led by Geert Wilders, would achieve 7 seats, a significant increase of 6 seats compared to its current representation.

Preliminary results and the wait until Sunday

The Netherlands is the first country to start the European elections, which will continue until Sunday, June 9. The official results will not be known until next Sunday night, when the last electoral college in the European Union closes, in Italy, at 23:00 p.m.. This leaves open the possibility of changes in the distribution of seats between the radical left and right, although polls suggest that both parties will have a prominent representation.

Wilders' progress is notable, considering that the PVV currently only has one seat, obtained after the additional distribution of seats after Brexit. On the other hand, the left loses one seat, since it currently has 9.

Distribution of seats: Emerging and traditional parties

The People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), to which the liberal Mark Rutte belongs, is positioned in third place with four seats. The Christian Democrats of the CDA and the left-liberals D66 would obtain 3 seats each.

The Peasant-Citizen Movement (BBB), critical of European regulations for farmers, would enter the European Parliament for the first time with two seats. Four other parties would obtain one seat each: the pro-European Volt, the Christian Democrat NSC, the Calvinist SGP and the Party of the Animals (PvdD)..

Decline of Forum for Democracy (FvD)

The big loser in these elections is Forum for Democracy (FvD), a far-right party led by Thierry Baudet. FvD would lose its four seats and be left without representation in Strasbourg, reflecting a significant rejection of his conspiracy theories and polarizing speech.

Methodology and margin of error of the polls

The data comes from exit polls conducted by Ipsos, which interviewed voters at several polling stations across the country. Although they provide a good picture of Dutch voter behavior, these results generally have a margin of error of one seat per party., which could affect the final representation of some parties.

Implications and expectations

These preliminary results suggest a significant change in the Dutch political landscape, with a notable rise of Geert Wilders' far-right and an adjustment in the representation of the left. The entry of new parties such as the BBB and the departure of FvD underline the changing dynamics of the Dutch electorate.

Confirmation of these results will occur at the close of polling stations throughout the European Union. Until then, exit polls offer a preliminary but valuable indication of electoral trends in the Netherlands, anticipating a significant reconfiguration in its representation in the European Parliament.

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